Market Update - Thursday, July 2, 2009
Mortgage Bonds are up this morning after grim employment news was released. According to the Labor Department, 467,000 jobs were lost in June, which is far worse than expectations of 365,000. But as you have heard many times from us, these numbers are derived from models and estimates. And we have often discussed the problems with the Birth Death Ratio of newly formed businesses and the jobs that are estimated as a result of this model. The public rarely looks beyond the headlines, so this very important "adjustment" usually flies under the radar.
In addition, the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, its highest level since August 1983.In a separate report this morning, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims number arrived at 614,000, and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits remains at a lofty 6.7 million. Until we see Initial Jobless Claims drop to something in the 400,000 range, we won't be seeing much of a job recovery. Overall, the weak Job numbers indicate that the recession continues at concerning levels.
In other news, the European Central Bank held its benchmark interest steady at 1% to help stimulate the European economy. As a result, the US Dollar has strengthened significantly, which has caused a sharp decline in Oil prices today. The decline in Oil, in turn, is applying pressure to Stocks by pushing shares of energy lower.
Currently, the weak job news has helped Mortgage Bonds climb to test a dual layer of resistance.
The markets will be closed JULY 4 in observance of Independence Day. The next market update will be delivered the week of July 6th.
Please Note:
Home buyers have until 12/01/09 ( 5-months) to close escrow on a home purchase to obtain the First Time Buyers tax credit that is worth 10% of the cost of the home, up to $8000. This tax credit phases out at adjusted gross income of $150K joint, or $75K single. Be careful when writing offers on short pays, that may take longer to close and cause Buyer to miss this important deadline!
30-year fixed Conventional & FHA Conforming (up to $417K): 5.125%
30-Year fixed Conventional & FHA Jumbo/Conforming (up to $729,750 in LA County): 5.375%
(Today's base rates are for a 30-day lock with no adjustments or incentives).
...Thought of the day...
Now you must.....
Stop telling yourself why you cannot do it and start reminding yourself why you must. When you have a strong enough reason why, you'll get it done. It can be all too easy to come up with excuses. And it can be all too easy to let those excuses stop you in your tracks.
Yet you can also very easily let go of those excuses. Though they may sound impressive, they are no longer valid for you.
Because as of now, you have chosen to move forward. As of this moment, you have reconnected with your purpose and you're clear about why you must.
Effort, as difficult as it may be, is a joy when there's a good, solid, meaningful reason behind it. On this very day, you can experience that joy.
Get up, get going, and thoroughly enjoy the process of achievement. Remember why you must, and get it done.